AU D: Good, Bad or just Ugly?...

After reading some "analysis" from the Tulane/AU game, I noted that many AU fans are complaining about the defense. Without doing any research, I believed that AU had an extremely inconsistent defense. It is certainly capable of shutting down an offense (see LSU); but has given up its share of yards.

I decided to look at the statistics to determine the nature of the AU defense to this date. All statistics are based on last week's rankings, as they have not been updated for this week's game. As a baseline, AU's D is ranked 5th in scoring, giving up an average of 12.1 points per game. However, it ranks 19th in total defense, with opposing offenses rolling up 276.88 yards per game. AU will probably drop in that ranking after giving up 389 yards of offense to Tulane.

This only tells part of the story. Another method would be to break down whether AU held each opposing team's offense to less than its average to date.

Washington State:
Game- Total Yards (TY): 274; Points Scored(PS): 14
Yearly Average- TY: 405.43 (22nd); PS: 23 (71st)
TY: (- 131 yards); PS: (- 9 points)

Mississippi State:
Game- TY: 161; PS: 0
Yearly Average- TY: 256.14 (110th); PS: 15.85 (105th)
TY: (- 95 yards); PS: (- 15 points)

LSU
Game- TY: 311; PS: 3
Yearly Average- TY: 417.17 (14th); PS: 35.57 (12th)
TY: (- 106 yards); PS: (- 32 points)

Buffalo
Game- TY: 198; PS: 7
Yearly Average- TY: 310.40(90th); PS: 18.33 (97th)
TY: (- 112 yards); PS: (- 11 points)

South Carolina
Game- TY: 240; PS: 17
Yearly Average- TY: 352.33 (58th); PS: 21.33 (77th)
TY: (- 112 yards); PS: (- 4 points)

Arkansas
Game- TY: 366; PS: 27
Yearly Average- TY: 383.83 (31st); PS: 28.17 (33rd)
TY: (- 7 yards); PS: (- 1 point)

Florida
Game- TY: 279; PS: 17
Yearly Average- TY: 394.14; PS: 27.29 (42nd)
TY: (- 115 yards); PS: (- 10 points)

Tulane
Game- TY:389; PS: 13
Yearly Average- 369.17 (43rd); PS: 22.00 (78th)
TY: (+ 20 yards); PS: (- 9 points)

Now, some of those are going to change based on this week's games. But, for the most part, this should give a good idea of what the teams are capable of doing.

Based on these statistics, Auburn's defense is actually quite good. It has held every one of its opponents to less scoring than each team's season average. The average works out to being 11.8 points less per game. Further, prior to this weekend, the AU D had held each team to 68.25 yards below their season average. In some cases, the AU D has held opponents to vastly less points than they are averaging. This is even more impressive when one considers its two "best" opponents (LSU: 8% of yearly average; Florida: 62% of yearly average).

Going back to the initial paragraph, AU is giving up 12.1 points per game and 276.88 yards per game. Raise your hand if you think this year's D is worse than last year's. You'd be wrong. AU finished the season giving up an average of 12.2 points per game and 290.9 yards per game. Another fun tidbit, in 2004, AU was ranked #1 in scoring D and #5 in yards allowed. That squad allowed 11.31 points per game and 277.61 yards per game. Do the math. This year's D is allowing only .8 more points per game and is actually allowing almost one yard less.

Can the D play better? Absolutely. But AU fans need to acknowledge that the D is playing pretty well as it is. Kind of a scary thought.

It must also be kept in mind that this year's D may look worse than it really is due to the problems on the other side of the ball. AU offense is ranked 71st in total offense (330.14 yards) and ranked 48th in scoring offense (25 points per game). As a point of reference, AU finished the season ranked 30th in 2005, averaging 423.6 yards per game and 32.2 points per game.

In the end, the biggest problem at AU may very well be the offense, not the defense.